Monday, June 22, 2009

And now an answer to a completely irrelevant question due to the implausibility of its circumstances.

Celticsblog.com (a great site for those of you who haven’t already found it) recently had a poll up that posed the following question:

“Would you accept a deal that would send Rondo and Ray Allen to Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire and Leandro Barbosa if the Celtics could then turn Amare into Al Jefferson and Minnesota's high draft pick?”

Now, as stated in the heading for this post, the question is moot because this scenario is almost completely unrealistic. I haven’t checked the salaries out yet, but it may not even be financially possible under the league’s trade rules (in any trade the total value of what teams A and B are receiving must be within 125% + $100,000 of each other). I think Amare’s contract would prevent this deal from hitting that mark, but again, that’s just off the top of my head and I would need to double check the figures.

Regardless, the question brings up an interesting debate: Would you be willing to sacrifice a young guard with the potential to be a top-5 player at his position for the next decade and an aging veteran for a quality big man?

It’s an intriguing prospect. On one hand, a top-notch floor general, especially one with the athleticism Rondo possesses, is hard to come by in today’s NBA. When the likes of Mo Williams, Rodney Stuckey, and Andre Miller are starting PGs on playoff teams, it’s definitely a sign that elite PGs are few and far between.

And a player with Allen’s shooting abilities and undeniable confidence in clutch situations will always be a great value to any team with a legitimate chance to go deep in the playoffs.

Clearly, to give up both players in one deal would be to give up quite a bit.

On the other hand, there’s an argument that has been hashed over many times throughout the years: that the key to winning a championship is having a great big man.

With KG entering what are presumably his last 2-3 seasons in the NBA and no heir-apparent on the C’s current roster, would sacrificing Rondo and Ray for a quality big, if we can get one, be the best move for the team?

Don’t get me wrong here; I love Ray, and I love Rondo even more.

I own a "You got Rondo'd" t-shirt. I was one of his earliest supporters and am one of the first to defend him when people bring up some of his faults (and he definitely has them). I have to admit that when it comes right down to it, he’s my favorite Celtic on the roster right now and is probably my favorite point guard in the NBA (and would be regardless of where he played).

However, when you examine the evidence from 60-plus seasons of NBA basketball, it slowly becomes apparent that great guards (1 or 2) - regardless of how spectacular they are - cannot win championships without a great big man.

Great big men, on the flipside, have proven that they can win championships while playing alongside strictly average guards.

Looking back at all the "great" guards in history who have actually won a championship, they all did it with great big men at their side:

Kobe had Gasol and Shaq (and Odom?). Ray Allen (difficult not to mention him here now) had KG when he finally won. MJ had Rodman, Grant and Salley.

Clyde the Glyde didn't win until he had Hakeem the Dream (but The Dream won the year before with average guards at best).

Isiah only won with Lambier, Rodman and Salley. Magic had Kareem and Rambis. "Tiny" Archibald only won when he finally had the Celts big men in '81. Dr. J had Moses. Cousy had Russell.

But, there are a host great "Big Men" who have won it on their own:

Hakeem in '94 (as previously mentioned); Tim Duncan (and D-rob) in '98; The Bird era Celtics (not to the extent of any other team on this list since they had good to very good gaurds, but still, not "great gaurds"); Willis in '70 and '73; and Kareem in '71.

And finally, when you look at the list of great guards that a championship ring eluded, the common thread amongst them is that few ever got to play with a great big man.

Steve Nash(unless you consider Amare “great”). Jason Kidd (again, unless you consider an aging Dirk “great”). Reggie Miller. Gary Payton (Lakers season doesn’t count due to Kobe’s sabotage of that team, otherwise the glove would be on my first list of great guards who only won with great big men at their sides).

Doc Rivers and Spudd Webb (and Dominique for that matter, while I'm listing great Hawks players who never played with a decent big man). George Gervin. Pistol Pete.... and the list goes on.

So based on history, you’ve got to sacrifice a quality guard for a big man like Jefferson if given the chance. Right?

The question is, will the Celtics get the chance, and if so, will Mr. Ainge actually pull the trigger?

I say not this offseason. The right deal just isn’t out there. Like I said, you do the Big Al deal if it was actually realistic, but it’s not, and neither is any scenario that would give us Amare, Bosh, or any other quality big man for the 2009-2010 season.

And why give up Rondo when you might be able to keep him and still sign that big man via free agency next summer? Danny has a two-year window to find KG’s replacement here, so there’s no need to rush it and do something you might regret 5-years down the road.

So let’s stop asking the irrelevant questions about “would you trade Rondo for…” and start focusing on the biggest issue facing the team next season that, amazingly, still no one is talking about.

What is wrong with KG’s knees and can he recover? If this were an aging pitcher with elbow issues it would be all the Boston sports media talked about.

Kind of a roundabout way to make my point, but hopefully you enjoyed the ride.

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