Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Here’s an interesting tidbit…

If you were to take an inventory of NBA players who are still active from both the 2000 and 2002 All-Star Game rosters, you’d come up with a list that looked like this:

PGs: Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Baron Davis
SGs: Ray Allen, Kobe Bryant
SFs: Peja Stojakovic, Tracy McGrady, Wally Szczerbiak, Paul Peirce, Vince Carter, Michael Finley, Jerry Stackhouse, Grant Hill
PFs: Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand, Jermaine O’Neal
Cs: Tim Duncan, Shaq

Now, if you take that list and whittle it down even further so it consists of only those players who started over 50 games last season, you get a list that looks like this:

PGs: Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Baron Davis
SGs: Ray Allen, Kobe Bryant
SFs: Peja Stojakovic, Paul Peirce, Vince Carter, Michael Finley, Grant Hill
PFs: Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki
Cs: Tim Duncan, Shaq

Now, you might be asking yourself, “Why do I care?” (though more likely you’re still wondering how Wally Szczerbiak ever made an All-Star team).

Or maybe you’re waiting for me to get to some type of point in all this meaningless rambling. Well, here it is:

Of those 15 men on that second list, as many as five (that’s 33.3% of the 2000 and 2002 All-Stars still starting in the NBA) could be playing significant minutes for the Boston Celtics in the 2009-2010 NBA season.

I’ll repeat that to let it sink in.

Five of the 15 players still starting NBA games from the 2000 and 2002 All-Star Team rosters could be suiting up in Celtics Green in the 2009-2010 season. Garnett, Peirce, Allen, Wallace, and now potentially Grant Hill.

To put that into perspective, consider this:

Assuming the Celtics do sign Hill, let Big Baby go elsewhere and head into the season with a 12-man roster of the Big Three, Rondo, Perk, Sheed, Hill, Scal, Eddie House, Tony Allen, Bill Walker and J.R. Giddens, then that average age on their roster would be 29.5 years of age.

I’m gonna round that up to 30, and then remind you that the Celts will likely pursue a veteran PG to back up Rondo after signing Hill, which will drive that age up even further.

In fact, just for fun, let’s say the Celts sign free agent guard Andre Miller (33) to back up Rondo. That pushes Giddens (24) off the 12 man roster and pushes the average age up to 30.25 years of age.

For comparison, the average age of an NBA player at the start of the 2007-2008 season (which was the most recent data I could find), was 26.89 years old. Furthermore, at the start of the 2008-2009 season the oldest team in the league was the San Antonio Spurs, sporting an average age of 29.96 years old (according to RPIratings.com).

What am I building up to here, you ask? Well, it’s this: If you’re an NBA GM, is building the oldest team in the NBA something you really want to have listed on your resume?

I completely understand Danny wanting to win another championship within the “two-year window” we’ve all heard so much about lately, but is it worth potentially sacrificing the following 10-years for the next two?

Don’t misunderstand me. I don’t really have a problem with any of the moves Danny has made so far this offseason, nor do I have any issue with the Celts pursuing Hill. I just get nervous when I see a team stockpiling aging talent (like the Lakers did in ’03-’04), because what generally happens is all that talent leaves over the course of two seasons and leaves a team stuck in “Rebuilding Hell”.

The Lakers had the luxury of being able to rely on a still relatively young superstar (Kobe) after that ’03-’04 season to help speed the ascent out of “Rebuilding Hell”, but with no such player on the Celtics current roster, a similar exodus of aging stars could leave the team reeling for six, seven, maybe even eight seasons.

Look, I’m not suggesting that Danny should have done (or could be doing) anything differently, I think he’s been making the right moves given the circumstances.

I’m just concerned that once we watch the Big Three, Sheed, Eddie House and now potentially Grant Hill leave one by one over the course of the next three seasons, Celtics fans are going to be left staring at a core of Rondo, Perk, a half decent free agent pickup (say a Kevin Durant or Carmelo Anthony) and a still developing Bill Walker, asking ourselves what the hell happened.

Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

It will be worse then you think because there is no way in hell you are getting anyone of the caliber of Melo or Durant. Better to get talent thought the draft.

-B said...

You might be right. I have to think that they'll be able to make a decent free agent pickup at some point over the next three years with roughly $60 million in expiring contracts (just from the Big Three alone). Unfortunately, most of the real big names will be locked into long term deals before we have all the necessary funds (Summer of 2010 free agent class is what I'm talking about), so we'd be looking at a big Free Agent signing in 2011 or 2012, which means your ceiling there is Melo.So that's Best possible scenario.